obama among likely voters leads by three points, 49 to 46. that's down from a five-point edge that he had in our poll just about three weeks ago. if you also look at the nbc "wall street journal" maris swing state polls, he's pulled even with president obama in the state of florida. that's the biggest swing state, 29 electoral votes. if you go then to virginia, he's also pulled within two points in virginia. he had been down four or five before. the bad news for romney in these three polls is that in ohio, a state that is critical, romney strategists think they have to win florida and ohio to get to 270 electoral votes. he's still down eight percentage points, and what we've seen across these polls is that obama is increasingly competitive with romney on who would do best to handle the economy. but the fact that we've got a little bit of movement nationally and movement in florida and virginia tells me that there's still some play in this electorate, in this contest, and that's the hope for romney going into this debate tonight. >> what do you think happened in florida versus in ohio?